Donald Trump wrote “The Art of the Deal”. Allegedly he is not the actual author, but this is irrelevant. What is relevant, is that the book is illustrative of Trump’s approach towards bilateral relationships and negotiations.
Not examining the actual merit of its content, probably the major takeaway of the book is the necessity for any negotiator to enter the negotiation process from a position of power. Most people dealing with negotiations know that power stems from two major sources (as well as a few minor ones): Incentives (things you can offer) and sanctions (things you can threaten to do). Trump did not set out to destroy the global economy. He may be doing that, but he is seeking to place the USA in an advantageous position against its trading partners. If they are willing to satisfy his demands, he will “do them a favor” to reduce the tariffs or issue them an exemption.
This is where things don’t work out, exactly the way Trump wants. Putting forward a sanction, to put the other side on the defensive, is an acknowledged tactic. It may be effective when the parties are virtually unknown to each other. Under such circumstances this will work the first time and may even work the second one as well. However, when such tactics are employed regularly, one ends up creating a profile that is discernible, and the environment adopts. In the case of Trump’s tariffs, the largest trading partners responded by putting their tariffs up, reciprocating the move. We have all seen the ramifications of this tit-for-tat behavior. Trillions of dollars have been lost, and it will not be too long before the average person in the street feels the effect in the form of recession, unemployment, inflation, consumer choice etc.
Strong arming your opponent may be effective in the short term. But when this is done horizontally, not recognizing friend from foe, the middle to long term result will inevitably be isolation through the rapture of trust, partnerships and alliances, even if some of them are counting several decades. It should be anticipated that those who are on the receiving end of sanctions will seek to find new markets and alliances.
The real art of negotiations is to accomplish the result one sets out to achieve, but at the same time forge strong, healthy relationships. I have seen how good negotiating practices can change the world in a positive way. Trump’s tariffs show in a very global, dramatic way that the opposite also applies.